Trump-endorsed candidates bested Pence-endorsed candidates in the Arizona and Wisconsin gubernatorial primaries. Trump has already had some luck in head-to-head endorsement fights with his former vice president, Mike Pence. Swarms of GOP voters will continue to genuflect before Donald Trump others may grow their skepticism about whether he is truly the future of the party. The midterms will present the opportunity to label him exactly that.
Potential 2024 candidates like Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Liz Cheney, Nikki Haley, Larry Hogan, Greg Abbott, and Mike Pompeo are looking for any opportunity to paint the former president as weak, politically ineffective, and as yesterday’s news. If election night in November proves underwhelming for Republicans, Mr. However, many Republicans endorsed different, controversial candidates in certain races. Trump made himself vulnerable by making endorsements of riskier candidates, bucking the GOP establishment. Trump’s political power and influence will be centerstage in GOP discussions. If Republicans don’t win, questions about and skepticism of Mr. But it’s a midterm and Republicans are supposed to win.
Trump’s Supreme Court nominations), a string of legislative victories, slowing inflation, and sustained job creation all work to bolster Democratic chances. A wildly unpopular Supreme Court decision around abortion (although resultant from Mr. Of course, surprising Democratic strength this November would not be entirely Mr. If Democrats hold off historic losses, and especially if they are able to maintain or even expand control in the U.S. The potential for Republicans to sweep Democrats across the board exists, but it may not ultimately happen, and that possibility is starting to worry Republican strategists. Trump will take another hit.įinally, in governor races, where Republicans could have been or should be competitive in places like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Trump’s endorsements could backfire if Democrats net a pickup in those races. However, if they manage to keep it or if several Trump-backed candidates lose, narrowing Republicans’ potential majority, Mr. Many expect Democrats to lose their majority in the House. However, if Senate candidates like Walker, Oz, Vance, or Blake Masters (AZ) ultimately lose in numbers that maintains Democrats’ Senate majority, Mr. Trump’s endorsement of candidates in deep red states or districts will surely pad his win-loss record. With the sitting Democratic president entering the midterm cycle with low approval ratings, the environment is ripe for Republicans to dominate at all levels of government. Vance (OH-SEN) Herschel Walker (GA-SEN) Mehmet Oz (PA-SEN) Josh Gibbs (MI-03) etc.)
In some cases, his endorsements were seen as supporting less electable candidates [i.e., Doug Mastriano (PA-GOV) J.D. While any politician or former elected official likes to tout a win-loss record (when it is flattering) of their endorsements, the former president faces a second and bigger battle in the general election. But winning primaries is only half the battle. Trump’s endorsement strategy is bold-to an extent never before in modern politics he has put his reputation on the line in the midterm elections. In other races such as for governors of Pennsylvania and Maryland and for Senate in Connecticut, Ohio and Arizona, those endorsements were important to the outcome. Trump’s endorsements went to candidates who were incumbents or were widely expected to win. He has padded that record, in part, by offering last minute endorsements-or in the case of the Missouri Senate race with a vague endorsement. The midterm elections will serve as a true test of his power, and the outcomes will determine his future strength in the party.ĭonald Trump’s record of success in primary endorsements has been mixed, as my colleagues have written extensively about in previous posts. He has spent the primary season throwing around his political weight by endorsing candidates all over the United States. This November Donald Trump faces an existential test.
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